The US executive spends billions of greenbacks each year to minimize uncertainty: to observe and forecast every thing from the elements to the unfold of disorder. In different phrases, we spend handsome profit to count on difficulties, determine possibilities, and stay away from error. a considerable component of what we spend—over $50 billion a year—goes to the U.S. Intelligence Community.
Reducing Uncertainty describes what Intelligence group analysts do, how they do it, and the way they're plagued by the political context that shapes, makes use of, and infrequently abuses their output. particularly, it seems at why IC analysts pay extra consciousness to threats than to possibilities, and why they seem to concentration extra on caution in regards to the risk of "bad issues" occurring than on offering the enter worthwhile for expanding the possibility of optimistic outcomes.
The e-book is meant to extend public realizing of what IC analysts do, to elicit extra correct and confident feedback for development from open air the Intelligence neighborhood, to stimulate innovation and collaboration between analysts in any respect grade degrees in all businesses, and to supply a center source for college students of intelligence. the main useful element of this booklet is the in-depth dialogue of nationwide Intelligence Estimates—what they're, what it skill to claim that they characterize the "most authoritative judgments of the Intelligence Community," why and the way they're very important, and why they've got such excessive political salience and symbolic significance. the ultimate bankruptcy lays out, from an insider's point of view, the tale of the unsuitable Iraq WMD NIE and its effect at the next Iran nuclear NIE—paying specific realization to the heightened political scrutiny the latter got in Congress following the Iraq NIE debacle.